Catalyst Radar
Every scheduled event that can move SPX and XSP, scored by how much it has actually moved the index over the past 7 years. See the size of today's and this week's expected move before the bell.
Live social catalyst scan
Pro scans StockTwits chatter on SPX, SPY and the mega-caps for unscheduled catalysts (tariffs, Fed speakers, chips) and summarizes what's heating up.
Daily catalyst forecast
Score 0–100 · the expected move is 1σ in SPX points, weighted by each day's catalysts
- 1σ expected move
- ±86 pts (1.14%)
- 68% range
- 7,506 – 7,679
- 95% range
- 7,420 – 7,765
- 1σ per contract
- $8,640
Ranges are centered on the last close. The ×100 multiplier applies to both SPX and XSP.
Wholesale inflation and a preview of CPI and PCE components. A big surprise matters most when it lands the day before or after CPI.
- ›Check how close it sits to CPI. Back-to-back inflation prints compound the move.
What actually moves SPX
7.8 years of SPX · each day's move scaled to the volatility of the 20 days before it · 1.00× = a typical day
FOMC rate decision days move SPX 1.24× a typical day, while CPI days, despite the hype, come in at 1.04×. Days with nothing scheduled run at 0.97×.
Impact blends the close-to-close move and the true range (including the opening gap), shrunk toward 1.00× for small samples. Mega-cap earnings use a fixed weight, since no free source has their historical report dates.
5-week radar
Tier 1 and tier 2 catalysts, by the session they hit
- FriNov 13PPI producer prices8:30 AM
- TueNov 17Retail sales8:30 AM
- WedNov 18Earnings: NVDA9:30 AM
- FriNov 20Monthly OPEX9:30 AM
- WedNov 25PCE inflation8:30 AMGDP8:30 AM
- FriDec 4Jobs report (NFP)8:30 AM
- WedDec 9FOMC rate decision2:00 PM
- ThuDec 10CPI inflation8:30 AM
- TueDec 15PPI producer prices8:30 AM
- WedDec 16Retail sales8:30 AM
SPX vs XSP on catalyst days
Same index, same catalysts. XSP is 1/10 the size, so a smaller account can hold a position through CPI or FOMC. Every move on this page converts exactly: divide SPX points by 10.
| SPX | XSP | |
|---|---|---|
| Size | ~$759,240 notional | ~$75,924 notional |
| Price | S&P 500 index | 1/10 of SPX |
| Style | European, cash-settled | European, cash-settled |
| Expirations | Every weekday (SPXW) | Every weekday |
| Tax (US) | Section 1256: 60/40 | Section 1256: 60/40 |
| Liquidity | Deepest index options book | Thinner. Use limit orders |
How the radar works
- Detect. Economic release dates come from the official agency calendars (via FRED). FOMC dates come from the Fed. OPEX, quad witching, VIX expiration and month-end are computed from exchange rules. Mega-cap earnings dates come from a live feed. A social scan of StockTwits index streams flags unscheduled catalysts when a topic suddenly dominates the chatter.
- Measure. For every past occurrence, SPX's move is divided by the volatility of the 20 days before it. That shows which events actually add movement and which are just noise.
- Predict. VIX (18.7) sets the total move the options market expects over the next month. The measured impacts then spread that total across the calendar, so catalyst days get more of it and quiet days get less.
Data: SPX FMP · VIX daily close · refreshed hourly. Also available as JSON at /api/catalysts.
Put the radar to work
Make today's Daily Call, compare notes with the Floor on catalyst days, and get a push before the big prints.
Catalyst Radar is an educational tool, not investment advice. Expected moves are statistical 1σ estimates (about a 68% range) and are exceeded regularly. Past event reactions do not guarantee future ones. Options, especially 0DTE options, can lose their full value quickly.