Edge Sheet
Thursday, Oct 29: the SPX game plan, locked before the bell and graded after the close.
Today’s calls
Only made when the data supports one. Each is scored after the close.
SPX closes between 7,637 and 7,851
±1.38% (107 pts) from yesterday's close, the 1-standard-deviation move priced by VIX and weighted for today’s catalysts. Closes land inside it about 68% of the time.
Closed at 7,720 (-0.31%), inside the range
No direction lean today: days like this one closed above their open about as often as any other day.
Key levels
SPX points, highest first. Distance is from the prior close.
- +2σ expected move7,958+214
- +1σ expected move7,851+107
- Pivot R17,762+18
- Prior day high7,758+14
- 5-day high7,758+14
- Prior close7,744
- 20-day average7,734-10
- Pivot S17,722-22
- Prior day low7,718-26
- 50-day average7,698-46
- −1σ expected move7,637-107
- 5-day low7,612-132
- −2σ expected move7,530-214
Pro adds dealer gamma levels: call wall, put wall and gamma flip.
Market type
Expected move ±106.9 pts (1.38%), catalysts high
Volatility curve is calm (near-term below longer-term); options are pricing more movement than SPX has been delivering; today's catalysts rate high; trend is uptrend.
- VIX
- 17.19
- 47th pct (1y)
- 20d realized vol
- 9.8%
- Vol premium
- +7.1
- VIX minus realized
- VIX curve
- contango
- 3M 19.57
- Trend
- Uptrend
- 20 vs 50-day
See the odds behind every call
Pro shows the full ‘days like today’ tables (gap, VIX, streak, trend, weekday) and dealer gamma levels from the live SPY option chain.
Days like today
2,742 SPX sessions over 10.9 years. Base rate: 54% of days closed above their open. Measured from the open, so the gap itself doesn’t count.
On the calendar today
With how SPX has moved on these days before
- Social: Mega-caps & earnings chatter 2× normal All dayMega-caps & earnings is 2× its usual share of index chatter (39 posts).
- Social: Economic data chatter 2.4× normal All dayEconomic data is 2.4× its usual share of index chatter (8 posts).
- PCE inflation 8:30 AM ETMoved SPX 0.88% on average · closed green 57% of 91 times · 1.1× a normal day
- GDP 8:30 AM ETMoved SPX 0.79% on average · closed green 63% of 100 times · 0.98× a normal day
- Jobless claims 8:30 AM ETMoved SPX 0.82% on average · closed green 55% of 396 times · 1.04× a normal day
Stocks in play
Overnight filings, earnings reactions and the biggest movers
- DASHMerger / acquisition (8-K)filing
- AMZNReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- COINReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- INTCReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- PINSReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- RBLXReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- RIVNReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- SBUXReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- FReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
Scorecard
Every call since launch, graded in public: 14 trading days