Edge Sheet
Wednesday, Nov 11: the SPX game plan, locked before the bell and graded after the close.
Today’s calls
Only made when the data supports one. Each is scored after the close.
SPX closes between 7,435 and 7,607
±1.15% (86 pts) from yesterday's close, the 1-standard-deviation move priced by VIX and weighted for today’s catalysts. Closes land inside it about 68% of the time.
Closed at 7,618 (+1.29%), above the range
Lean long from the open: SPX closed above its open on 72% of 39 similar days
Gap up more than 0.5% · VIX 15–20 · SPX below its 20-day average. The base rate is 54%, so this is 2.3 standard errors away from a coin flip.
Closed above the open (+0.41% from the open)
The 0.92% gap up holds and doesn't trade back to 7,521
On 278 days that opened with a gap up more than 0.5%, SPX traded back to the prior close 28% of the time.
Opened +0.87%, gap held
Key levels
SPX points, highest first. Distance is from the prior close.
- 5-day high7,716+195
- +2σ expected move7,694+173
- 50-day average7,673+152
- 20-day average7,631+110
- +1σ expected move7,607+86
- Pivot R17,553+32
- Prior day high7,544+23
- Prior close7,521
- Pivot S17,480-41
- Prior day low7,470-51
- −1σ expected move7,435-86
- 5-day low7,350-171
- −2σ expected move7,348-173
Pro adds dealer gamma levels: call wall, put wall and gamma flip.
Market type
Expected move ±86.3 pts (1.15%), catalysts quiet
Volatility curve is calm (near-term below longer-term); options are priced close to recent movement; trend is downtrend.
- VIX
- 18.36
- 77th pct (1y)
- 20d realized vol
- 21.3%
- Vol premium
- -1.9
- VIX minus realized
- VIX curve
- contango
- 3M 20.85
- Trend
- Downtrend
- 20 vs 50-day
See the odds behind every call
Pro shows the full ‘days like today’ tables (gap, VIX, streak, trend, weekday) and dealer gamma levels from the live SPY option chain.
Days like today
2,751 SPX sessions over 10.9 years. Base rate: 54% of days closed above their open. Measured from the open, so the gap itself doesn’t count.
On the calendar today
With how SPX has moved on these days before
No major scheduled catalysts. Quiet calendars tend to mean smaller ranges.
Full Catalyst Radar →Stocks in play
Overnight filings, earnings reactions and the biggest movers
Nothing notable overnight.
Scorecard
Every call since launch, graded in public: 14 trading days