Edge Sheet
Monday, Nov 2: the SPX game plan, locked before the bell and graded after the close.
Today’s calls
Only made when the data supports one. Each is scored after the close.
SPX closes between 7,479 and 7,681
±1.33% (101 pts) from yesterday's close, the 1-standard-deviation move priced by VIX and weighted for today’s catalysts. Closes land inside it about 68% of the time.
Closed at 7,542 (-0.50%), inside the range
No direction lean today: days like this one closed above their open about as often as any other day.
Key levels
SPX points, highest first. Distance is from the prior close.
- +2σ expected move7,782+202
- 5-day high7,758+178
- 20-day average7,730+150
- 50-day average7,697+117
- +1σ expected move7,681+101
- Prior day high7,637+57
- Pivot R17,636+56
- Prior close7,580
- Prior day low7,528-52
- 5-day low7,528-52
- Pivot S17,526-54
- −1σ expected move7,479-101
- −2σ expected move7,378-202
Pro adds dealer gamma levels: call wall, put wall and gamma flip.
Market type
Expected move ±101 pts (1.33%), catalysts normal
Near-term fear is higher than longer-term: stress mode, expect bigger swings; options are pricing more movement than SPX has been delivering; trend is sideways.
- VIX
- 19.42
- 78th pct (1y)
- 20d realized vol
- 11.4%
- Vol premium
- +8
- VIX minus realized
- VIX curve
- backwardation
- 3M 19.37
- Trend
- Range
- 20 vs 50-day
See the odds behind every call
Pro shows the full ‘days like today’ tables (gap, VIX, streak, trend, weekday) and dealer gamma levels from the live SPY option chain.
Days like today
2,744 SPX sessions over 10.9 years. Base rate: 54% of days closed above their open. Measured from the open, so the gap itself doesn’t count.
On the calendar today
With how SPX has moved on these days before
- Social: Oil & energy chatter 1.8× normal All dayOil & energy is 1.8× its usual share of index chatter (11 posts).
Stocks in play
Overnight filings, earnings reactions and the biggest movers
- FLNCFLNC: CEO exit-10.8%filing
- MRVLMRVL: Merger / acquisition-1.1%filing
- IDXXIDXX: Guidance cutfiling
- FHBFHB: Merger / acquisitionfiling
- ORCLShare offering (424B5)-3.2%filing
- ALBDeal terminated (8-K)filing
- AAPLReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- PLTRReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- ROKUReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- ABBVReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
- CVXReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
- XOMReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
- INTCTop loser (last session)-28.6%loser
Scorecard
Every call since launch, graded in public: 14 trading days