Edge Sheet
Friday, Nov 6: the SPX game plan, locked before the bell and graded after the close.
Today’s calls
Only made when the data supports one. Each is scored after the close.
SPX closes between 7,208 and 7,499
±1.98% (145 pts) from yesterday's close, the 1-standard-deviation move priced by VIX and weighted for today’s catalysts. Closes land inside it about 68% of the time.
Closed at 7,379 (+0.34%), inside the range
No direction lean today: days like this one closed above their open about as often as any other day.
Key levels
SPX points, highest first. Distance is from the prior close.
- 5-day high7,716+362
- 50-day average7,687+333
- Prior day high7,681+327
- 20-day average7,680+326
- +2σ expected move7,644+290
- Pivot R17,573+219
- +1σ expected move7,499+145
- Prior close7,354
- Prior day low7,350-4
- 5-day low7,350-4
- Pivot S17,242-112
- −1σ expected move7,208-146
- −2σ expected move7,063-291
Pro adds dealer gamma levels: call wall, put wall and gamma flip.
Market type
Expected move ±145.4 pts (1.98%), catalysts normal
Near-term fear is higher than longer-term: stress mode, expect bigger swings; options are pricing more movement than SPX has been delivering; trend is downtrend.
- VIX
- 27.31
- 99th pct (1y)
- 20d realized vol
- 19.4%
- Vol premium
- +8.7
- VIX minus realized
- VIX curve
- backwardation
- 3M 18.8
- Trend
- Downtrend
- 20 vs 50-day
See the odds behind every call
Pro shows the full ‘days like today’ tables (gap, VIX, streak, trend, weekday) and dealer gamma levels from the live SPY option chain.
Days like today
2,748 SPX sessions over 10.9 years. Base rate: 54% of days closed above their open. Measured from the open, so the gap itself doesn’t count.
On the calendar today
With how SPX has moved on these days before
- Jobs report (NFP) 8:30 AM ETMoved SPX 0.88% on average · closed green 55% of 92 times · 1.15× a normal day
Stocks in play
Overnight filings, earnings reactions and the biggest movers
Nothing notable overnight.
Scorecard
Every call since launch, graded in public: 14 trading days