Edge Sheet
Tuesday, Nov 3: the SPX game plan, locked before the bell and graded after the close.
Today’s calls
Only made when the data supports one. Each is scored after the close.
SPX closes between 7,446 and 7,637
±1.27% (95 pts) from yesterday's close, the 1-standard-deviation move priced by VIX and weighted for today’s catalysts. Closes land inside it about 68% of the time.
Closed at 7,569 (+0.36%), inside the range
No direction lean today: days like this one closed above their open about as often as any other day.
Key levels
SPX points, highest first. Distance is from the prior close.
- 5-day high7,758+217
- +2σ expected move7,732+191
- 20-day average7,718+177
- 50-day average7,694+153
- Prior day high7,662+121
- +1σ expected move7,637+96
- Pivot R17,623+82
- Prior close7,541
- Prior day low7,539-2
- 5-day low7,528-13
- Pivot S17,500-41
- −1σ expected move7,446-95
- −2σ expected move7,350-191
Pro adds dealer gamma levels: call wall, put wall and gamma flip.
Market type
Expected move ±95.5 pts (1.27%), catalysts quiet
Near-term fear is higher than longer-term: stress mode, expect bigger swings; options are pricing more movement than SPX has been delivering; trend is sideways.
- VIX
- 21.44
- 87th pct (1y)
- 20d realized vol
- 11.2%
- Vol premium
- +10
- VIX minus realized
- VIX curve
- backwardation
- 3M 20.78
- Trend
- Range
- 20 vs 50-day
See the odds behind every call
Pro shows the full ‘days like today’ tables (gap, VIX, streak, trend, weekday) and dealer gamma levels from the live SPY option chain.
Days like today
2,745 SPX sessions over 10.9 years. Base rate: 54% of days closed above their open. Measured from the open, so the gap itself doesn’t count.
On the calendar today
With how SPX has moved on these days before
- JOLTS job openings 10:00 AM ETMoved SPX 0.74% on average · closed green 52% of 92 times · 0.95× a normal day
Stocks in play
Overnight filings, earnings reactions and the biggest movers
- GHGH: CEO exitfiling
- ONON: Merger / acquisitionfiling
- HNGEHNGE: CEO exitfiling
- RAMPRAMP: Change in controlfiling
- KEYSKEYS: CFO exitfiling
- VRTXVRTX: FDA / regulatoryfiling
- AMDReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- PFEReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- SHOPReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- AAPLReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
- PLTRReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
- ROKUReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
Scorecard
Every call since launch, graded in public: 14 trading days