Edge Sheet
Wednesday, Nov 4: the SPX game plan, locked before the bell and graded after the close.
Today’s calls
Only made when the data supports one. Each is scored after the close.
SPX closes between 7,449 and 7,689
±1.59% (120 pts) from yesterday's close, the 1-standard-deviation move priced by VIX and weighted for today’s catalysts. Closes land inside it about 68% of the time.
Closed at 7,689 (+1.59%), above the range
No direction lean today: days like this one closed above their open about as often as any other day.
Key levels
SPX points, highest first. Distance is from the prior close.
- +2σ expected move7,809+240
- 5-day high7,758+189
- 20-day average7,706+137
- 50-day average7,693+124
- +1σ expected move7,689+120
- Prior day high7,595+26
- Pivot R17,594+25
- Prior close7,569
- Prior day low7,545-24
- Pivot S17,545-24
- 5-day low7,528-41
- −1σ expected move7,449-120
- −2σ expected move7,328-241
Pro adds dealer gamma levels: call wall, put wall and gamma flip.
Market type
Expected move ±120.3 pts (1.59%), catalysts elevated
Volatility curve is calm (near-term below longer-term); options are pricing more movement than SPX has been delivering; trend is sideways.
- VIX
- 18.47
- 85th pct (1y)
- 20d realized vol
- 11%
- Vol premium
- +9.8
- VIX minus realized
- VIX curve
- contango
- 3M 21.6
- Trend
- Range
- 20 vs 50-day
See the odds behind every call
Pro shows the full ‘days like today’ tables (gap, VIX, streak, trend, weekday) and dealer gamma levels from the live SPY option chain.
Days like today
2,746 SPX sessions over 10.9 years. Base rate: 54% of days closed above their open. Measured from the open, so the gap itself doesn’t count.
On the calendar today
With how SPX has moved on these days before
- Social: Washington chatter 3× normal All dayWashington is 3× its usual share of index chatter (37 posts).
Stocks in play
Overnight filings, earnings reactions and the biggest movers
- HLHL: Guidance cutfiling
- NESRDeal terminated (8-K)filing
- SMGuidance cut (8-K)filing
- RAREGuidance cut (8-K)filing
- ERIECEO exit (8-K)filing
- ETNMerger / acquisition (425)filing
- SNAPReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- UBERReports earnings before today’s openearnings
- AMDReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
- PFEReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
- SHOPReported earnings after yesterday’s closeearnings
Scorecard
Every call since launch, graded in public: 14 trading days